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Calls on the record

Every brief makes a few dated predictions with a stated likelihood. Each one is scored here when it resolves, including the misses.

Scorecard

6 calls, 0 resolved

No calls resolved yet. The first resolves in December 2026.

  1. LB-1Very likely, 85% Open until December 2026

    PJM's 2029/30 capacity auction clears at its price cap

    Resolves by December 2026, on PJM 2029/2030 Base Residual Auction results. Made in Load Bearing, version 1.1, on 27 October 2026.

  2. LB-2Very likely, 90% Open until March 2027

    US retail electricity sales set a new record in 2026, above 2025's 4,058 TWh

    Resolves by March 2027, on EIA annual retail sales total for 2026. Made in Load Bearing, version 1.1, on 27 October 2026.

  3. LB-3Very likely, 90% Open until December 2027

    Less than 10% of the Texas large-load queue is approved to energize by the end of 2027

    Resolves by December 2027, on ERCOT large-load interconnection status report. Made in Load Bearing, version 1.1, on 27 October 2026.

  4. SM-1Likely, 70% Open until January 2027

    GE Vernova reports at least 130 GW of gas equipment backlog plus slot reservations at the end of 2026

    Resolves by January 2027, on GE Vernova fourth-quarter 2026 earnings release. Made in Slot Machine, version 1.0, on 29 October 2026.

  5. SM-2Very likely, 85% Open until February 2028

    Less than 70% of the 10.7 GW of gas capacity that EIA-860M (September 2026) lists as planned for 2027 is operating by the end of 2027

    Resolves by February 2028, on EIA Form 860M, December 2027 inventory (match by plant and generator ID). Made in Slot Machine, version 1.0, on 29 October 2026.

  6. SM-3Likely, 60% Open until January 2028

    GE Vernova's gas slot reservations not yet in backlog are below 58 GW at the end of 2027

    Resolves by January 2028, on GE Vernova fourth-quarter 2027 earnings release. Made in Slot Machine, version 1.0, on 29 October 2026.

How scoring works

Graded in public

A record settles each call

Every call names the published record that decides it and the date by which it resolves.

A stated likelihood

Likelihoods follow a fixed scale: very likely means 80–95%, likely 55–80%, about even 45–55%, and so on down.

The Brier score

Each resolved call scores the square of the gap between its stated chance and what happened. 0 is perfect; always saying 50% scores 0.25.

Nothing is rewritten

Calls are never deleted or reworded. An update is a new, dated call, so the old one stays on the record.