Home / Method
How a brief is made
One event, one argument, and no number that cannot be traced to a public source and recomputed.
Load Bearing, by the numbers
What went into No. 1
The process
Five steps, in order
Pick one event and one thesis
Each brief starts from something that just happened and makes a single claim about what it means. The title is two words; the subtitle says it plainly.
Gather the public record
Federal data, grid operator filings, company disclosures and trade press. Every source is logged with its date so it can be found again.
Recompute every number in code
Ratios, shares and correlations are rebuilt from the raw figures in scripts, so any number in the brief can be reproduced.
Stress-test the findings
Each finding is pushed with other estimates, other start and end years, and other definitions. The wording changes until it survives, which is why some findings say “on paper” or give a range.
Publish the PDF
The finished brief is under ten pages: key implications, three sections, a few charts and the sources. It goes up here unchanged.
Ground rules
What every brief holds to
No unsourced numbers
Every figure traces to a public source listed at the end of the brief.
Claims, then hedges
A finding states what the data shows, then says where it stops holding.
Section heads are claims
Each section heading is an argument, not a topic, so the contents page reads as a summary.
Charts label themselves
Labels sit on the data, not in a separate legend, and every chart carries its source.
Disclosed AI assistance
AI tools help find sources and draft the text, and each brief says so on the cover. Every number is still recomputed from public data, and Liam Kranenburg checks each brief and is responsible for it.
Independent
Not paid by anyone it writes about. The format follows 2014–15 energy decision briefs; the work is original.
House voice
How the briefs are written
Always
- A number with a time window up front
- One pivot per paragraph: yet, still, indeed, by contrast
- Long, long, short sentence rhythm
- Units spelled out the first time
- End on an if-then and a statistic
Never
- Hype adjectives
- Rhetorical questions
- Telling the reader what to do
- A “Conclusion” heading
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