[
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "status-check-41",
  "figure": "41%",
  "caption": "of gas EIA lists as not seeking approval is approved or building",
  "headline": "EIA's status codes lag the field: 41% of the gas it lists as not yet seeking approval is already approved or under construction.",
  "text": "KPA checked each of the 35 plants behind the 37.4 GW that EIA lists for 2027–30 as not yet seeking approval, against regulators' orders, utility filings and company statements. Of that capacity, 15.4 GW, or 41%, is already approved or under construction. Another 5.8 GW is before regulators.",
  "theme": "Plans",
  "page": 6,
  "source": "KPA's own analysis: a plant-by-plant check of EIA Form 860M (September 2026) against state commission dockets, utility and company releases, SEC filings and trade press.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#status-check-41"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "gev-book-122",
  "figure": "122 GW",
  "caption": "GE gas equipment on order or reserved, 30 September 2026",
  "headline": "GE Vernova's gas book has more than doubled in 18 months.",
  "text": "Of GE's 122 GW, 64 GW was firm orders and 58 GW was reservations at the end of September, up from 50 GW in total at the end of March 2025. GE expects at least 130 GW by the end of the year.",
  "theme": "Supply",
  "page": 4,
  "source": "Reported figure, not a KPA finding: GE Vernova third-quarter 2026 release, 28 October 2026.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#gev-book-122"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "book-clears-2031",
  "figure": "2031",
  "caption": "about mid-year: when GE's planned output equals its current book",
  "headline": "At GE's planned output, the current book equals production through about mid-2031.",
  "text": "At 20 GW a year, 122 GW is about six years of production; GE plans 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030. On 28 October, GE said it had sold several slots for delivery in 2032.",
  "theme": "Supply",
  "page": 5,
  "source": "KPA's arithmetic on GE's stated output plan, a measure of size rather than a delivery date. XenoSpectrum (20 October 2026) first reported the years-of-output ratio and is credited.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#book-clears-2031"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "planned-gas-3-5x",
  "figure": "3.5×",
  "caption": "growth in planned US gas capacity, September 2024 to September 2026",
  "headline": "Planned US gas capacity rose 3.5 times in two years while the share under construction fell.",
  "text": "Planned gas rose from 20.6 GW in September 2024 to 71.1 GW in September 2026 in EIA's inventory. Capacity under construction rose only from 5.4 GW to 13.1 GW, so its share fell from 26% to 18%.",
  "theme": "Plans",
  "page": 5,
  "source": "KPA's own analysis of EIA Form 860M; the under-construction share is KPA's own. EDF and Atlas Public Policy (13 October 2026) and Frontier (23 September 2026) reported similar rises and are credited.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#planned-gas-3-5x"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "cc-premium-31bn",
  "figure": "$31B+",
  "caption": "extra cost of planned combined-cycle plants at 2025 costs",
  "headline": "At 2025 costs, the planned combined-cycle fleet would cost at least $31 billion more than at 2023 costs.",
  "text": "KPA applied BloombergNEF's cost rise (from under $1,500 to $2,157 per kW) to the 47 GW of combined-cycle capacity in EIA's planned list. That is slightly more than major US utilities spent on transmission in all of 2023, though the premium would be paid over several years of construction.",
  "theme": "Prices",
  "page": 9,
  "source": "KPA's own calculation from BloombergNEF and EIA data. A lower bound, because BloombergNEF puts 2023 costs under $1,500/kW.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#cc-premium-31bn"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "lead-time-base-rates",
  "figure": "39–62%",
  "caption": "of gas listed two years ahead was canceled or postponed",
  "headline": "Gas listed a year ahead has almost always been built; gas listed two years ahead often has not.",
  "text": "KPA traced every gas generator on four earlier EIA lists to its status in September 2026, counting only plants whose planned year has passed. Of capacity listed about a year ahead, 94–100% is operating; of capacity listed about two years ahead, 35–46% is operating and 39–62% was canceled or indefinitely postponed.",
  "theme": "Risk",
  "page": 7,
  "source": "KPA's own analysis of four EIA Form 860M inventories. Related completion rates by Cleanview (2025), LBNL (Queued Up, 2026) and munimv2 (October 2026) are credited.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#lead-time-base-rates"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "signed-to-shipped-ratio",
  "figure": "6.7→2.2",
  "caption": "GW signed per GW shipped, Q2 to Q3 2026",
  "headline": "GE's signings fell toward its shipments in the third quarter.",
  "text": "In the second quarter, GE signed 6.7 GW of new gas contracts for each gigawatt it shipped; in the third, 2.2, partly because shipments rose from 3 GW to 5 GW. A falling ratio can mean buyers are running out of near-term slots to reserve, or the rush to reserve is cooling.",
  "theme": "Demand",
  "page": 8,
  "source": "KPA's own calculation from GE Vernova quarterly releases. The fall in reservations, from 63 GW to 58 GW, is GE's own disclosure.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#signed-to-shipped-ratio"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "merchant-at-risk",
  "figure": "10–16",
  "caption": "GW of 2028–30 merchant gas plans at risk on the past record",
  "headline": "On the past record, 10–16 GW of merchant gas plans for 2028–30 would drop off EIA's list.",
  "text": "Applied to the 25 GW of 2028–30 plans held by independent producers, the record would put 10–16 GW at risk, and 10.4 GW of those plans are Project Matador. The record is small, four groups and 22 GW, so it is a yardstick rather than a forecast.",
  "theme": "Risk",
  "page": 7,
  "source": "KPA's own calculation from its lead-time base rates for EIA Form 860M.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#merchant-at-risk"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "deposits-non-refundable",
  "figure": "20–25%",
  "caption": "of the turbine contract often put down, non-refundable per GE",
  "headline": "Buyers carry risk from the first deposit, not from conversion to a firm order.",
  "text": "Customers have often put down 20–25% of the turbine contract, and GE's chief financial officer said in October 2025 that the deposits are non-refundable for reservations and firm orders alike. Data centers account for about 20% of GE's gas book but about a third of its reservations.",
  "theme": "Risk",
  "page": 9,
  "source": "Reported figure, not a KPA finding: GE Vernova earnings calls (23 April 2025, 22 October 2025, 28 October 2026), Bank of America conference (18 March 2026) and 2025 Form 10-K.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#deposits-non-refundable"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "id": "matador-11-3",
  "figure": "11.3 GW",
  "caption": "Project Matador alone: about 18% of US gas planned for 2027–30",
  "headline": "One data center campus, Project Matador in Texas, is about 18% of all US gas planned for 2027–30.",
  "text": "Of the 37.4 GW EIA lists as not yet seeking approval, 19.5 GW, or 52%, would serve a named data center campus. Only Matador's first phases, about 1 GW, are under construction; the other 10.2 GW has no signed buyer.",
  "theme": "Demand",
  "page": 6,
  "source": "KPA's own analysis from its plant-by-plant check of EIA Form 860M. Global Energy Monitor has tracked gas proposals tied to data centers and is credited.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#matador-11-3"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "growth-share",
  "figure": "~100%",
  "caption": "of net US demand growth, 2014–23, came from data centers",
  "headline": "Data centers were roughly all net US demand growth, 2014–23.",
  "text": "Between 2014 and 2023, US data centers increased their electricity use by about 118 TWh. Over the same nine years, total US retail sales rose by only about 110 TWh. Everything else combined was essentially flat, within 1%. Ending the comparison in 2025, data centers account for about 60% of growth.",
  "theme": "Demand",
  "page": 4,
  "source": "KPA calculation on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and EIA data. Range across estimates: 73–108%. The general point, that data centers drive growth, was published by EIA and IEA.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#growth-share"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "ten-times",
  "figure": "10×",
  "caption": "the growth of 2021–27 against the 14 years before",
  "headline": "Growth in 2021–27 is ten times the prior 14 years.",
  "text": "Retail electricity sales were 3,765 TWh in 2007 and 3,806 TWh in 2021. EIA expects 4,217 TWh by 2027, a gain of about 411 TWh in six years against 41 TWh in the fourteen before.",
  "theme": "Demand",
  "page": 4,
  "source": "Arithmetic on EIA Monthly Energy Review and October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook. Similar multiples were published earlier (Creaspace, September 2026).",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#ten-times"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "turbine-2031",
  "figure": "2031",
  "caption": "when a large gas turbine ordered today would run, per EPRI",
  "headline": "The plant arrives after the forecast window closes.",
  "text": "EPRI finds the largest gas turbines now take more than five years from order to delivery, so one ordered today would, on average, not run until 2031. KPA's point is the timing: that is after the 2025–30 window over which utilities forecast the demand it is meant to serve. GE Vernova disputes the bottleneck, putting new heavy-duty orders at about three years.",
  "theme": "Supply",
  "page": 5,
  "source": "The 2031 date is EPRI's (B. Noble, Utility Dive, 23 March 2026). Setting it against the forecast window is KPA's comparison.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#turbine-2031"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "half-percent",
  "figure": "0.5%",
  "caption": "curtailment that matches forecast data center growth, on paper",
  "headline": "Modest flexibility matches the data center forecast, on paper.",
  "text": "If data centers gave up 0.5% of their potential annual energy use, the existing grid could absorb about 98 GW, against roughly 90 GW of forecast data center growth for 2025–30. It does not cover total forecast growth of 166 GW, and in Texas forecast growth is about five times the 0.5% headroom.",
  "theme": "Flexibility",
  "page": 7,
  "source": "KPA comparison of Duke University Nicholas Institute (February 2025) headroom with Grid Strategies (November 2025) forecasts. The Duke authors made a related point in 2025.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#half-percent"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "one-percent",
  "figure": "~1%",
  "caption": "of that headroom is under contract today",
  "headline": "Contracts cover about 1% of the headroom.",
  "text": "Google had contracted about 1 GW of data center demand response across five utilities by March 2026, roughly 1% of the most conservative headroom figure of 76 GW.",
  "theme": "Flexibility",
  "page": 8,
  "source": "KPA calculation on Google (March 2026) and Duke University Nicholas Institute figures.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#one-percent"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "pjm-price",
  "figure": "11×",
  "caption": "rise in PJM's capacity price in two auctions, as reported",
  "headline": "A price signal that arrives all at once.",
  "text": "PJM's capacity price rose from $28.92 per megawatt-day for 2024/25 to $329.17 for 2026/27, an 11-fold increase, and it has cleared at the cap of a price collar in each of the last three auctions. Its market monitor attributes $29.4 billion, or 46%, of the cost of the last four auctions to data center load.",
  "theme": "Prices",
  "page": 6,
  "source": "Reported figures, not a KPA finding: PJM auction results; IEEFA (July 2025) made the same comparison; Monitoring Analytics via Utility Dive, July 2026.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#pjm-price"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "queue",
  "figure": "3.3×",
  "caption": "likely data center requests against forecast growth",
  "headline": "The queue is not the load.",
  "text": "Wood Mackenzie counts 1,066 GW of US data center interconnection requests. Even the 28% it expects to be served, about 300 GW, is more than three times the roughly 90 GW of data center growth in utilities' own forecasts. Against the raw total the ratio is about 12 to 1, though the definitions do not match.",
  "theme": "Queues",
  "page": 6,
  "source": "KPA comparison of Wood Mackenzie (via Capacity, 25 August 2026) with Grid Strategies (November 2025).",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#queue"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "half-utility",
  "figure": "½",
  "caption": "of a utility's peak, drawn by one campus",
  "headline": "One customer, roughly half a utility.",
  "text": "Meta's Hyperion campus in Louisiana is described at 5 GW or more. Entergy Louisiana's peak in the record heat of August 2023 was about 10.3 GW.",
  "theme": "Demand",
  "page": 5,
  "source": "KPA pairing of Louisiana Illuminator (5 August 2026) and Entergy 2023 peak data. Similar comparisons ran in Sierra (2025) and Fortune (2026).",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#half-utility"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "texas-queue",
  "figure": "1.4%",
  "caption": "of the Texas large-load queue has passed stability study",
  "headline": "Texas has barely begun to clear its queue.",
  "text": "Of the 474 GW in the Texas large-load queue, only about 6.6 GW had passed the grid operator's new stability study by August 2026, and none of those had been approved to switch on. About 8.9 GW had been approved to energize under ERCOT's earlier process.",
  "theme": "Queues",
  "page": 9,
  "source": "KPA division of figures reported by Utility Dive (21 August 2026); ERCOT, June 2026, for the earlier process.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#texas-queue"
 },
 {
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "id": "state-prices",
  "figure": "+17 pts",
  "caption": "added to household price rises by being in PJM, 44 states",
  "headline": "The bill lands on the region, not the host state.",
  "text": "Several independent analyses this year found that data center concentration does not explain which states' household prices rose fastest, and that being in PJM does; OpenData Labs put it most plainly in July. KPA's regression on 44 states agrees and sizes the regional effect: being in PJM adds about 17 percentage points (p = 0.002), while data center share has no significant effect.",
  "theme": "Prices",
  "page": 6,
  "source": "The pattern was published first by OpenData Labs (July 2026), IER, Heatmap, CRA and LBNL. The regression is KPA's, on EPRI and EIA data.",
  "url": "https://kpa.energy/findings/#state-prices"
 }
]