[
 {
  "id": "LB-1",
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "version": "1.1",
  "made_on": "2026-10-27",
  "call": "PJM's 2029/30 capacity auction clears at its price cap",
  "band": "very likely",
  "probability": 0.85,
  "resolves_by": "2026-12-31",
  "resolution_source": "PJM 2029/2030 Base Residual Auction results",
  "status": "Open until December 2026",
  "outcome": null,
  "resolved_on": null
 },
 {
  "id": "LB-2",
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "version": "1.1",
  "made_on": "2026-10-27",
  "call": "US retail electricity sales set a new record in 2026, above 2025's 4,058 TWh",
  "band": "very likely",
  "probability": 0.9,
  "resolves_by": "2027-03-31",
  "resolution_source": "EIA annual retail sales total for 2026",
  "status": "Open until March 2027",
  "outcome": null,
  "resolved_on": null
 },
 {
  "id": "LB-3",
  "brief": "Load Bearing",
  "version": "1.1",
  "made_on": "2026-10-27",
  "call": "Less than 10% of the Texas large-load queue is approved to energize by the end of 2027",
  "band": "very likely",
  "probability": 0.9,
  "resolves_by": "2027-12-31",
  "resolution_source": "ERCOT large-load interconnection status report",
  "status": "Open until December 2027",
  "outcome": null,
  "resolved_on": null
 },
 {
  "id": "SM-1",
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "version": "1.0",
  "made_on": "2026-10-29",
  "call": "GE Vernova reports at least 130 GW of gas equipment backlog plus slot reservations at the end of 2026",
  "band": "likely",
  "probability": 0.7,
  "resolves_by": "2027-01-31",
  "resolution_source": "GE Vernova fourth-quarter 2026 earnings release",
  "status": "Open until January 2027",
  "outcome": null,
  "resolved_on": null
 },
 {
  "id": "SM-2",
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "version": "1.0",
  "made_on": "2026-10-29",
  "call": "Less than 70% of the 10.7 GW of gas capacity that EIA-860M (September 2026) lists as planned for 2027 is operating by the end of 2027",
  "band": "very likely",
  "probability": 0.85,
  "resolves_by": "2028-02-29",
  "resolution_source": "EIA Form 860M, December 2027 inventory (match by plant and generator ID)",
  "status": "Withdrawn",
  "outcome": "withdrawn",
  "resolved_on": "2026-10-29"
 },
 {
  "id": "SM-3",
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "version": "1.0",
  "made_on": "2026-10-29",
  "call": "GE Vernova's gas slot reservations not yet in backlog are below 58 GW at the end of 2027",
  "band": "likely",
  "probability": 0.6,
  "resolves_by": "2028-01-31",
  "resolution_source": "GE Vernova fourth-quarter 2027 earnings release",
  "status": "Open until January 2028",
  "outcome": null,
  "resolved_on": null
 },
 {
  "id": "SM-2b",
  "brief": "Slot Machine",
  "version": "1.1",
  "made_on": "2026-10-29",
  "call": "At least half of Project Matador's 11.3 GW (EIA-860M, September 2026) is canceled, postponed or moved past 2030 in EIA's December 2027 inventory",
  "band": "likely",
  "probability": 0.6,
  "resolves_by": "2028-02-29",
  "resolution_source": "EIA Form 860M, December 2027 inventory (plant ID 69799)",
  "status": "Open until February 2028",
  "outcome": null,
  "resolved_on": null
 }
]